Middle East Danger Zones: A 2026 Update

Middle East Danger Zones: A 2026 Update
Bichler, Shimshon and Nitzan, Jonathan. (2026). Research Note. March. pp. 1-7. (Article - Working Paper; English).

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Abstract or Brief Description

In February 2026, the United States and Israel attacked Iran, kick-starting a new Middle East ‘energy conflict’. And like most energy conflicts over the past half century, this one too began after the region fell into a ‘danger zone’.

The notion of a danger zone was first introduced in our 1995 paper, ‘Bringing Capital Accumulation Back In’. We coined it to denote a period in which the Middle East is likely to experience an oil-related conflict or war and examined its implications for the region’s global political economy.

Capitalism, we argued in our research, was a regime built on the capitalization of power, organized through relative pecuniary quantities and ruled by state-backed, dominant-capital coalitions. In line with this approach, we proposed that, since the late 1960s, Middle East danger zones hinged on the differential profits of dominant oil companies; that is, on whether their rate of return beats or trails the corporate average.

Specifically, we claimed that when the differential profits of the oil companies are positive – namely, when they beat the average – the risk of regional conflict is low. And conversely, when their differential profits are negative – i.e., when they trail the average – the region is in a danger zone, and the risk of conflict is high.

Language

English

Publication Type

Article - Working Paper

Keywords

danger zones differential accumulation dominant capital oil energy conflicts Middle East OPEC Petro Core prices profit war

Subject

BN International & Global
BN Money & Finance
BN Power
BN Region - Europe
BN Region - North America
BN Region - Middle East
BN State & Government
BN Value & Price
BN War & Peace
BN Business Enterprise
BN Capital & Accumulation
BN Comparative
BN Conflict & Violence
BN Crisis
BN Distribution

Depositing User

Jonathan Nitzan

Date Deposited

14 Mar 2026 23:25

Last Modified

15 Mar 2026 01:40

URL:

https://bnarchives.net/id/eprint/885

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